Last updated October 14, 2026
Key global oil market figures.
These figures summarize the International Energy Agency's medium-term oil outlook and its October 14, 2026 monthly oil market report. They are useful context for energy-market research and planning, not live market pricing or transaction guidance.
−2.6 mb/d
Forecast change in world oil demand in 2026
The IEA's October 2026 Oil Market Report forecasts world oil demand will be 2.6 million barrels per day lower on average in 2026 than in 2025.
Source: International Energy Agency, October 14, 2026102.3 mb/d
Global oil supply in September 2026
The IEA reports global oil supply increased by 2.5 million barrels per day month over month to 102.3 million barrels per day in September 2026.
Source: International Energy Agency, October 14, 2026−620 kb/d
Projected 2027 oil use versus 2025
The IEA expects a partial recovery in 2027, while global oil use remains 620,000 barrels per day below its 2025 level.
Source: International Energy Agency, October 14, 20262.5 mb/d
Expected growth in global oil demand
The International Energy Agency projects global oil demand to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day between 2024 and 2030.
Source: International Energy Agency, June 17, 2025105.5 mb/d
Projected global oil demand in 2030
The agency expects worldwide oil demand to reach a plateau of about 105.5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.
Source: International Energy Agency, June 17, 2025114.7 mb/d
Projected oil production capacity in 2030
Global oil production capacity is forecast to rise by more than 5 million barrels per day and reach 114.7 million barrels per day by 2030.
Source: International Energy Agency, June 17, 202590%
Share of recent worldwide oil supply growth from the United States
The IEA says the United States accounted for 90% of worldwide oil supply growth over the previous decade.
Source: International Energy Agency, June 17, 202560%
Share of recent global oil demand growth from China
The IEA says China accounted for 60% of the rise in global oil demand over the previous decade.
Source: International Energy Agency, June 17, 20255.4 mb/d
Oil demand projected to be displaced by electric vehicles
Based on the IEA outlook, electric vehicles are set to displace 5.4 million barrels per day of global oil demand by 2030.
Source: International Energy Agency, June 17, 20251 in 6
Barrels of oil projected for petrochemicals
The petrochemical industry is on track to consume one in every six barrels of oil by 2030, becoming the dominant source of oil demand growth from 2026 onward.
Source: International Energy Agency, June 17, 20252027
Projected year for China’s oil consumption peak
The IEA expects China’s oil consumption to peak in 2027 under its current medium-term outlook.
Source: International Energy Agency, June 17, 2025How to read these figures
Outlook figures describe direction, not a deal.
Oil-market conditions can move quickly with geopolitics, production decisions, freight, refinery operations, policy changes, and disruptions. For a physical fuel opportunity, the relevant product, specification, origin, delivery basis, timing, counterparty, and documentation still need to be reviewed in full.
Methodology and source
Primary sources, cited at every statistic.
Every number on this page is drawn from the International Energy Agency's Oil 2025 medium-term outlook or its October 14, 2026 Oil Market Report. The figures include forecasts, so they are labeled as projected or expected where applicable.
International Energy Agency, Oil 2025 release, June 17, 2025 International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report, October 14, 2026Cite this page
Van Dyke Energy. “Global Oil Market Outlook Statistics.” Updated October 14, 2026. https://vandykeenergy.com/market-outlook-statistics